Tobacco Taxation in Eastern Europe ( TTEE )

Project duration: January 2024 – December 2026

Call/Program/Scheme: Bloomberg Philantropies - The Initiative to Reduce Tobacco Use

Client / Financier: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies – wiiw, Beč, Austrija

Participating institutions: Institute of Economic Sciences

Principal investigator (PI): dr Jovan Zubović, Institute of Economic Sciences, PI

The role of IEN in the project: IEN is a lead institution

IEN project team (manager/coordinator, team members):

dr Jovan Zubović, PI
dr Olivera Jovanović, team member
dr Aleksandar Zdravković
dr Boban Nedeljković

Description:

The research within the three-year project (2024-2026) is focused on a comprehensive analysis of the economic, fiscal and market effects of taxation of tobacco products in Serbia, with the aim of supporting the creation of effective public policies. The project includes the development of advanced econometric and macroeconomic methods for estimating the impact of changes in excise taxes on consumption, economic activity and budget revenues. In the first year (2024), the focus of the research is on analysing the change in the use of tobacco products, especially among young people, and estimating the temporal changes in the price elasticity of tobacco demand, based on data from household surveys and specialized research. In addition, a system for effective dissemination of results and strengthening of dialogue with decision-makers is being developed. In the second year (2025), the research expands to include the analysis of the taxation of new tobacco products (HTP) and the comparative analysis of youth smoking in the region, with the preparation of studies, public policy documents and the organization of national events, as well as intensive cooperation with key institutions and international partners. In the third year (2026), an integrated analytical framework is being developed that links microeconomic consumption analysis and macroeconomic analysis, allowing for the assessment of the effects of price changes and taxes on the structure of consumption, sectoral activity, employment and fiscal flows. It also analyses substitution trends between different tobacco products and their impact on excise revenues.

Keywords: taxation of tobacco products, consumer behaviour, price elasticity, economic and fiscal effects, public policies and regulations