The Analysis of Contemporary Economic and Financial Trends

Project duration: March 2022 – December 2022

Call/Program/Scheme: United Nations Development Programme - UNDP

Client / Financier: United Nations Development Programme - UNDP

Participating institutions: Institute of Economic Sciences

Principal investigator (PI): dr Jovan Zubović, Institute of Economic Sciences

The role of IEN in the project: IEN is a lead institution

IEN project team (manager/coordinator, team members):

dr Jovan Zubović
dr Isidora Ljumović
dr Aleksandar Zdravković
Milena Lazić, MA

Description:

The project provides a comprehensive analysis of the impact of the Ukrainian crisis on the Serbian economy, with a focus on companies' operations, investment flows and availability of financing. The first task analyses the direct and indirect transmission channels of the crisis, including trade disruptions, rising energy and commodity prices, inflationary pressures and disruptions in supply chains, as well as their impact on productivity, costs and competitiveness of enterprises. The research also includes an assessment of short- and medium-term effects on various sectors, as well as the identification of new risks, as well as potential opportunities such as nearshoring, growth in domestic demand and the arrival of new foreign companies. The second task is aimed at analysing the impact of the crisis on investments and the financial environment, including the movement of foreign direct investments, changes in their structure and directions, as well as Serbia's position in the regional context. Special attention is paid to the assessment of short- and medium-term effects through different scenarios, the impact of rising interest rates and inflation on investment activity, as well as the availability of financial resources through the banking sector and alternative sources of financing. The aim is to provide an integrated assessment of the impact of the crisis on economic growth and to define recommendations to mitigate the negative effects and exploit new development opportunities.

Keywords: Impact of the Ukrainian Crisis, Business Performance of Serbian Companies, Foreign Direct Investments, Access to Financing, Economic Resilience