Contemporary Economic and Financial Trends Analysis

Financed by: UNDP

Team coordinator of the Institute of Economic Sciences: Jovan Zubović, PhD

Duration: 2022

Description:

The project goal is to provide the Ministry of Economy and Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Serbia with evidence-based decision-making on how to overcome the negative impact of the Ukraine crisis on the Serbian economy and financial market.

The main goal of the first component is to assess the magnitude and structure of the immediate/short-term impact Ukraine crisis on Serbian companies and assess the potential mid-term impact. Project activities include an analysis of the immediate impact of the war in Ukraine on Serbian companies, as well as mid-term potential consequences if disruptions caused by the Ukraine crisis persist. The focus of the project is on large companies, as well as micro, small and medium-sized companies operating in Serbia that are affected by the crisis and might be affected through spillovers. This implies that the analysis should assess both the direct and indirect impact of the crisis on the Serbian economy.

The main goal of the second component is to assess the impact of the Ukraine crisis and consequent changes and disruptions in global trends on investment flows and access to finance in Serbia. Project activities include an analysis of global and regional trends in financial and capital markets caused by the crisis in Ukraine and their implications for Serbia. The analysis is focused on key global trends, how they reflect comparable Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) countries, and what implications those trends create for Serbia's economy and the financial market. The project activities assess the impact on private sector access to finance due to global changes and disruptions caused by the Ukraine crisis and other ongoing crises.